Despite the darkness, supply remained stable
The beginning of 2024 was characterized by strongly fluctuating prices on the electricity exchanges. A prolonged weather situation with little wind and sun – a so-called dark lull – caused a significant imbalance between supply and demand. During this phase, wholesale prices temporarily rose to over 900 euros per megawatt hour. As a result, suspicions arose that producers may have deliberately withheld their output in order to achieve higher prices.
1. Results of the audit by the Cartel Office and Network Agency
The Federal Cartel Office and the Federal Network Agency investigated the behavior of large electricity producers with controllable power plants in this critical market phase. The focus was on possible market distortions due to generation capacities not being strategically fed in. However, the investigation came to a clear conclusion: there was no evidence of deliberate capacity restraint. This means that no anti-competitive behavior can be proven.
The clear statement from Andreas Mundt, President of the Federal Cartel Office: “The high prices in the dark doldrums were not the result of behavior that violated antitrust law.”
2. Structural reasons for the price increase
The analysis showed that the price explosions were largely due to structural factors. A low feed-in of renewable energies was met with high demand and limited availability of individual conventional systems. There were also international influences: bottlenecks in neighboring markets also had a price-increasing effect. In such situations, the market design allows price peaks to make shortages visible – but physical undersupply should be prevented through reserve capacities.
3. Power supply remained stable throughout
Despite the tense situation, the power supply in Germany was guaranteed at all times. Reserve power plants used and cooperation between transmission system operators ensured network stability. Although the dark lull was a stress test for the system, there were no supply interruptions – an indication of the resilience of the current energy system.
4. Need for reform in electricity market design
Even if no illegal behavior was identified, the price spikes raise new questions about the design of the market. Additional incentives for flexible generation, market signals for storage solutions and better European coordination are being discussed. The aim remains to ensure security of supply and market stability even in exceptional situations.
5. Growing importance of flexible systems
With the increasing share of renewable energy, the energy system becomes more vulnerable to weather-related fluctuations. Storage technologies, controllable power plants and intelligent networks become the basis of a reliable supply model. The winter of 2024 shows clearly that without targeted investments in grid flexibility and system reserves, the energy transition remains vulnerable.
6. Outlook: Market works – structural adjustment necessary
The authorities confirm: There was no evidence of manipulative strategies on the electricity market. Nevertheless, the volatile price dynamics make it clear that the existing market design is reaching its limits. For politics and the energy industry, this means: Now is the moment to modernize structures, strengthen grid integration and realign market instruments.
This also includes a realistic assessment of flexibility options: storage solutions, load management and cross-border cooperation must be more integrated and economically promoted. Only an intelligent interaction of these elements can prevent extreme weather situations from causing critical market stress in the future. The energy future not only needs more capacity, it needs a system that can confidently deal with uncertainties.