1. Regional scenarios illustrate the extent of solar expansion

They expect the next two decades Distribution network operator with a solar expansion that goes well beyond what has been achieved so far. Current regional scenarios show that installed photovoltaic capacity could grow to around 425 gigawatts by 2045.

Compared to today’s existing systems, this would correspond to an almost fourfold increase. The forecasts are based on joint analyzes by the largest distribution network operators and were published at the beginning of the year. They form an important basis for long-term planning of the regional power grids.

The scenarios provide information about what connection services can be expected in the future and what investments will be required to ensure secure and stable network operation. At the same time, it is clear that the expansion of photovoltaics is closely linked to further developments in the energy system.

2. Battery storage is becoming increasingly important

The expected growth in battery storage is significantly dynamic. By 2045, the storage capacity connected to the distribution networks could increase many times over. While memory While they have so far only played a limited role in network operation, they will become a central component for flexibility and security of supply in the future.

The function of large-scale storage is to absorb surplus electricity from renewable energies and postpone it over time. At the same time, the number of decentralized storage systems in households and commercial businesses is increasing, which are often installed in combination with photovoltaic systems. This development significantly increases the requirements for network control, forecasts and operational management.

3. Grid expansion is becoming the focus of the energy transition

The simultaneous expansion of photovoltaics, battery storage and new electrical consumers is fundamentally changing the requirements for distribution networks. Electricity generation is increasingly decentralized, while load flows are becoming more complex and difficult to predict. The need for adjustments to infrastructure and network operations is correspondingly great.

Against this background, industry representatives point out that there is considerable pressure to act. Kerstin Andreae, Chairwoman of the Executive Board of the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), explains:

“In view of the massive expansion of renewable energies, electromobility and battery storage, distribution network operators are faced with a truly Herculean task.”

The quote makes it clear that the success of the energy transition does not solely depend on the construction of new generation plants. It is equally crucial to expand, digitize and flexibly align the distribution networks in a timely manner. Without sufficient investment and reliable framework conditions, bottlenecks could arise that slow down the further expansion of renewable energies.

4. Distribution network operators expect strong growth thanks to new consumers

In addition to electricity generation, new forms of consumption also make a significant contribution to the growing power requirement. Electromobility, heat pumps, data centers and the increasing electrification of industrial processes mean that significantly more electricity has to be transported via the distribution networks.

The regional scenarios show that the networks not only have to accommodate higher performance, but also have to react more flexibly to time differences. A particular challenge lies in the temporal decoupling of solar power generation and consumption peaks.

5. High investment requirements and regulatory requirements

If the expected growth rates are to be achieved, significant investments are required. Distribution network operators expect that billions of euros will have to flow into new lines, more powerful transformers and digital control and monitoring systems.

The industry also demands a stable regulatory framework. Plannable revenue models, adapted incentive systems and accelerated approval procedures are considered prerequisites for implementing network expansion in a timely manner. Otherwise there is a risk of infrastructural bottlenecks that will slow down the progress of the energy transition.

6. What this means for the photovoltaic market and investors

The forecasts provide a clear signal for the photovoltaics market. The long-term expansion path underlines the central role of solar energy in future electricity supply. Project developers, investors and property owners can continue to expect high demand.

At the same time, network-friendly solutions are becoming increasingly important. Photovoltaic systems with integrated storage, intelligent control or flexible feed-in models are likely to come into greater focus in the future. Business models relating to storage operations and flexibility marketing are also becoming increasingly relevant.

7. The prospects are long-term until 2045

The assessments of the distribution network operators show how profoundly the German energy system will change in the coming decades. The strong expansion of photovoltaics and battery storage is considered an essential building block on the path to climate neutrality.

Whether this transformation succeeds depends largely on the interaction between politics, network operators, business and society. However, one thing is clear: without efficient and sustainable distribution networks, the energy transition cannot be successfully implemented.