1. Energy transition under pressure: Study sees increasing need for insurance

Germany is facing new structural challenges in transforming its energy system. The expansion of renewable energies is making progress, but at the same time it is becoming increasingly clear that their fluctuating feed-in places additional demands on the stability of the electricity system.

A current study comes to the conclusion that the need for controllable power plant output could be significantly higher than previously assumed. Specifically, there is talk of up to 53 gigawatts of hydrogen-capable gas power plants by 2045 – a value that significantly exceeds previous energy policy planning.

This makes it clear: the success of the energy transition does not only depend on the installed capacity of renewable energies, but increasingly on how effectively short-term fluctuations in the electricity supply can be balanced out.

2. Fluctuating feed-in increases the need for flexible power

With the growing share of renewable energies, the electricity supply is fundamentally changing. Wind and Solar systems do not provide constant energy but depend on the weather. So-called dark lulls, i.e. phases with little wind and little solar radiation, are particularly critical.

In such situations, electricity production decreases while demand often remains the same. Without sufficiently flexible power plants, bottlenecks can arise. The study makes it clear that these reserve capacities must be larger than previously planned.

An additional aspect to consider is the increasing volatility in the electricity system. As the proportion of renewable energies increases, short-term fluctuations become more frequent and sometimes even stronger. This significantly increases the demands on the flexibility of the entire system and makes fast, reliable compensation mechanisms indispensable.

3. Flexible gas power plants as central security

Hydrogen-capable gas power plants are considered particularly suitable for closing this gap. They can ramp up quickly and provide short-term power. They therefore play an important role as security in the energy system.

At the same time, they offer a long-term perspective: While they will initially run on natural gas, they will later be converted to green hydrogen. In this way, they could combine security of supply and climate protection.

4. 53 gigawatts as a warning signal for energy policy

The 53 gigawatts mentioned in the study are not a fixed expansion plan, but a scenario. Nevertheless, the number has a strong signaling effect. It shows that current planning may not be sufficient to secure long-term supply.

The higher the proportion of renewable energies, the more important guaranteed performance becomes. This ensures that electricity is available at all times – regardless of external conditions.

This figure makes it clear that the energy transition must be thought of more systemically. It is not enough to build additional generation capacity; what is more important is how well supply and demand can be balanced in real time. This is exactly where the need for flexible, quickly available power plants arises.

5. Research sees growing gap in assured performance

A central concept in the study is secured performance. This refers to the power plant capacity that is reliably available.

“Our results show that the need for guaranteed performance is significantly higher than previously assumed,” says Prof. Dr. Tobias Hirth from the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg.

The statement makes it clear that the energy transition must be geared more towards system stability. At the same time, a previously often underestimated factor is moving into the center of planning: the reliable availability of power at the crucial moment.

Even if enough electricity is mathematically generated from renewable sources, it is of little use if it is not available exactly when it is needed. Assured performance thus becomes a decisive factor for a functioning energy system.

The study suggests that there is a growing gap that needs to be actively closed. This can be done through flexible power plants, storage solutions or other forms of system stabilization.

6. Hydrogen remains a key uncertainty factor

The planned use of hydrogen is associated with challenges. Green hydrogen is currently scarce and expensive. The construction of production facilities and infrastructure is still in its early stages.

Many power plants would therefore initially have to be operated with natural gas. This leads to a tension between climate goals and security of supply. At the same time, energy losses occur when using hydrogen.

7. Alternatives could reduce demand

Not all experts see the expansion of gas power plants as the only solution. Battery storage, load management and a better connected European electricity market could also help smooth out fluctuations.

How effective these measures are depends largely on their speed and their interaction. Battery storage can compensate for short-term fluctuations, while load management helps to adapt electricity consumption to supply more flexibly. A more integrated European electricity market could also better balance regional differences in generation and demand.

8. Growing time pressure: Germany needs up to 53 GW of flexible gas power plants

The expansion of flexible power plants requires significant investments. It’s about billions of dollars that can only be mobilized under reliable political conditions.

At the same time, time is of the essence. The construction of new facilities takes several years. Delays could mean that there will not be enough assured power available in the coming decades.

9. Outlook: Energy policy before a directional decision

The study shows that the energy transition is more than just the expansion of renewable energies. What is crucial is the interaction between generation, flexibility and infrastructure.

Germany is therefore faced with an important decision: How much flexible power plant output is needed – and which technologies should take on this task? It is already clear that the power plant strategy must be further developed to ensure a secure and climate-neutral power supply.