India’s solar processing sector is faced with an unprecedented challenge, since the domestic capacity will occur to a potential oversupply by 2027, while global trade voltages can re -change the entire industry landscape.
The numbers tell a dramatic story. The Indian module production capacity has exploded from only 8 GW in 2017 to 68.4 GW todayWith ambitious destinations from 120 GW until 2030.
This burning expansion was made by aggressive government policy, including the Production -bound incentive Scheme and strategic import duties as well as the approved list of models and manufacturer framework conditions.
But growth masked critical structural weaknesses. The SBI capital report shows that the production of India in terms of modules is dangerously distorted, while the solar cell capacity remains below 30 GW. Even more worrying is that despite the development of goals, the country has practically no presence in the production of upstream Wafer and Polysilicon 40 GW Wafer Capacity until March 2027.
The new almm II mandate that begins in Germany for state projects begins June 2026aims to solve this gap, but creates an immediate supply of supply.
In the meantime, China’s strangling control in the global supply chain is both threats and opportunities. Beijing Controls over 93% of global polysilicium production, 97% of wafer production and 85% of solar cell production. Significant parts of the global performance make up a facilities and create what analysts describe heavy weaknesses.
Other regions have difficulty competing. The European Union faces over a decade for 2025 before its first solar growth, although the goals for the annual production capacity of 30 GW. The United States has made it under construction with 98 new facilities online and 51 as part of the inflation, but is faced with a critical non -agreement between 56.5 GW module capacity and only 20 GW operating cell production.
India’s export dynamics contain concerns about domestic care. In 2024, the country exported 5.8 GW modules in the previous year – 97% to the United States. But the US tariffs rise, Sät 64% They threaten this decisive export market by August.
On the other hand, the timing couldn’t be worse. The Chinese manufacturers plan to close a third of the polysilicone capacity to tackle overcapacity and price volatility. This restructuring creates both opportunities and challenges for the manufacturers of India, since they develop domestic polysilicon capabilities as part of the PLI framework.
Overall, the convergence of the implementation of domestic politics and global trade voltages will determine whether India’s production expansion becomes a strategic advantage or triggers market instability. The success of the implementation of Almm-II and the development of the skills upstream will probably decide whether the projected 2027 oversupply as predicted.